Y2K, the Millennium Bug 1 Gene S. Bartlow, CAE Colonel, USAF-Retired PDCA, Executive Vice President It's not hype, nor is it nothing to worry about: Year 2000 (Y2K) problems are a critical issue for every business, because customers and suppliers may measure your company by how well you handle the Millennium Bug. PDCA is committed to assisting our membership in solving these problems so that our member's business will operate without disruption. PDCA considers it important that the membership is aware of this potential business problem and what to do about it. . For the last thirty-five years computer systems have maintained a two-digit year field. Thus, 1997 is stored as '97, assuming it is "1997". With the advent of the year 2000, the Millennium, some computer systems will process dates incorrectly because they will interpret '00 as "1900". This can cause erroneous data or complete malfunction of the computer system. Computer systems that project dates into the future will run into this problem before the year 2000. There is an information-technology infrastructure in this country, just like we have an infrastructure of roads, and from time to time they have to be repaved and repainted. As a painting contractor, you may not have viewed your company computer systems as part of the overall infrastructure, but they are, particularly if you interface directly with any other computer systems, e.g., your bank, your customers, your vendors. The larger your company the greater the potential is for an adverse impact by the Y2K, the Millennium Bug. Some news articles say that the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem will cause catastrophic disasters. "Chicken Little, the sky is falling" is the scare tactic. Some computers will stop. Some computers will give wrong answers. Longtime Y2K agitator Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, puts the odds of a global recession at 70%. The pace of computer repairs is too slow, he says, and there are too few contingency plans. We know that every system will not be fixed on time. What we do not know is how much that is going to matter. Businesses, consumers, government agencies, hospitals, banks, high-rise buildings, public utilities-are all vulnerable. In the best case, data jam-ups will be only a nuisance. In the worst case, serial, crashing computers will damage commerce so badly that companies will lay off tens of thousands of workers and a recession ensues.2 Perhaps the greatest uncertainty is how rank-and-file Americans will react should power grids go down, telephone lines go dead, billions of consumer goods containing imbedded microchips go haywire, communication satellites blink out, the stock market falls silent or bank vaults be emptied of currency as the Western world is plunged back, back, back to the pre-microprocessor stone age of the 1950s.3 Frankly, I do not plan to fly anywhere on December 31st, 1999; just to be sure the FAA is not plagued with this problem when I am in the air. Conversely, for many, the Millennium Bug represents little more than an annoying speed bump on the information superhighway. "Research director Lou Marcoccio, of the Gartner Group in Stamford, Conn., a top technology consultant, thinks that 30%-to-50% of online business computers will have at least one critical failure, meaning that an important system will shut down. But, he also says that 90% of those failures will last less than three days". 4 The world will not stop turning. When it comes to your place in the "food chain", fear is the greatest enemy. If, around the turn of the century, your company's computers fail to support your business relationships, the consequences could be grim. Customers, suppliers, partners, and contractors, who suffer because of your company's computer problems, will keep that memory for a long time. So, you have to step up, do the testing, and document the soundness of your systems to everyone---even if it is just to reduce their fears. Some of PDCA's members are not heavily into computers, but many are, and if your company is now moving into computers, this is one area to monitor closely. Here and now, at the dawn of the networked economy, it's particularly important to work against fear. Look at what concerns about the security of credit card transactions has done to delay the adoption of consumer electronic commerce. Fear is the enemy. Lack of information is the fuel firing Y2K fear, so everything you do to document your company's Y2K compliance can have a positive effect. Software programs that run on your company's PC's to monitor inventory, track accounts receivable and payable, schedule appointments, estimate job contracts, track jobs and labor, calculate payroll, and the like should also be investigated. The best place to start is by contacting the company who supports your systems for you. Inquire as to their "Year 2000 Compliance". Do not simply take "it will be fine" for an answer. Ask for test results or other information that demonstrates a level of confidence. After all, it is your business that will be adversely impacted, if these computer systems do not work correctly. Your company may also have Y2K exposure with out-of-date hardware and/or software. Most experts say model 386 PC's and earlier will not be ready for Year 2000. Any newer PC's should have manufacturer's assurances that their products are, or can be upgraded to be Year 2000 compliant (or ready). Still don't believe this is a problem? Consider that ZD Computer Intelligence found in a survey of 75,000 technology decision-makers that 33.1% of small (1-99 employees) and 18% of medium (100-499 employees) do not have a plan for testing their Year 2000 compliance. Only 15.1% of large companies have completed their Y2K projects. The consequences could be dramatic and for at least a few companies, it is inevitable. Do your bit to minimize the fear-work on your company's Y2K compliance. A relatively small investment was necessary in the National PDCA offices to ensure the PDCA computers systems were "Year 2000 Compliant". We now have the local area network (LAN) using an Intel Pentium system with the most current version of Microsoft NT, Microsoft Office 97, and our accounting and database management software were upgraded to ensure all systems were linked and operating properly. "Nature abhors a vacuum, but doomsayers thrive in one". Addressing the issue honestly and early on offers the best assurance that as the 11th hour approaches most Americans will keep their heads, even if some among them are losing theirs and blaming it on others. Your National PDCA strongly urges the membership to look into the Y2K issue in your office systems and assure your business friends and associates that your company is Y2K compliant. Bumper Sticker thought for the Day: "Warning: Dates in Calendar are closer than they appear". Addendum: Below are some Web sites where you can find information on the Y2K problem. You should also check Web sites for your hardware and software suppliers to stay on top of what they are doing about the Y2K problem. www.y2k.com www.year2000.com www.sec.gov/news/home2000.htm www.usbr.gov/y2k/ www.gmt-2000.com www.millennia-bcs.com www.aicpa.org/members/y2000/index.htm www.gkglaw.com/publications/ www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2khome.htm Footnotes [1] This article was published under the title, “Y2K, the Millennium Bug”, in the Painting & Decorating Contractor magazine, the official publication of PDCA, Finan Publishing Co., St. Louis, MO, January-February 1999 issue, page, 26. [2] Jane Bryant Quinn, “Bugged by Y2K?”, Newsweek, page 48B, August 31, 1998. [3] There are already over 50 bills in the US Congress related to the Year 2000 problem. [4] Jane Bryant Quinn, “Bugged by Y2K?”, Newsweek, page 48B, August 31, 1998.